Logic behind this assertions:

1. The  inevitability of change

Think about how different the world looked 100 years ago, or even just 50 years ago.  Our cell phones would have been magic. It is therefore not unreasonable to think that life 50 years from now would stretch our current imaginations. As different as 2000 was from 1900, 2011 will likely represent even more of a drastic leap.

A major shift tends to happens every 80-100 years, and it is usually precipitated by war. By many metrics, Covid has created war-time economies and is acting as a world-war-level catalyst of change.

Having said that, cities do not simply disappear. It is a bit dramatic (and incorrect) to say that cities like NYC will die. Cities don’t die, focus simply shifts. Before NYC, London was the capital of the western world. And before London, it was Amsterdam. A shift in focus is currently underway, and I believe a new more multipolar reality is emerging. South Florida is emerging  as one of those new polarities.

2. For those who can, life is being reimagined around the capabilities of the internet

Until Covid, we were living in what was essentially a post WWII, 20th century world.  The internet came at the very end of the 20th century, and was incorporated bit-by-bit into existing infrastructure (homes, offices, schools etc… ).

Covid was a full-stop event for many people. Habits were broken for long enough to allow for the formation of new ones.

3. Covid accelerated trends, two key trends that will keep sending capital to South Florida & Miami:

-> the wealth gap

Monetary policies enacted by central banks during Covid have in many ways accelerated the wealth gap.  Large wealth gaps are destabilizing forces and will continue to create tensions in the United States.

-> increasingly incompatible belief systems and the geographic  polarization of the nation
The United States was already polarized pre-Covid, and now we can add the handling of Covid to the list of incompatible belief systems.

People will continue to vote with their feet, for monetary and quality of life reasons. South Florida will continue to benefit.

4 . Monetary & fiscal policy will continue to fuel instability at scale

Very low interest rates, held for a long period of time, are a root cause of many of the tensions and behaviors we see around us. Greenspan crossed the too-big-to-fail Rubicon . Monetary policy has never looked back and we are now fully entrenched.

5 . South Florida is well positioned to be an epicenter of the emerging, more multipolar world

-> Taxes: the city benefits from being in the state of Florida

-> Airport: the city has one of the best international airports in the world

-> Forward looking: the region has champions putting a strong message that the future here is bright

-> Positive momentum: the region is attracting new businesses and people with capital, meanwhile the city’s feeder jurisdictions are increasingly hostile to the same entities

-> Quality of life: weather and safety have strong positive perception

-> Freedom: for those that agree with how the state of Florida is handling Covid, the region and the state are perceived as places of freedom.

Forecast

Momentum is a real force and history moves in cycles. It is important to recognize the current upswing and to align with it.

Barring natural disasters of epic proportion or some black swam event, the direction of the shift underway should remain. We have thus far been living in a world built in the 20th century, a new 21st century world is now emerging. South Florida and Miami have all the ingredients in place to be on the receiving end of the shift. The South Florida real estate market is resetting to reflect this new status. A bear market accompanied by a change in interest rates and liquidity crunch would of course have a dampening effect on the real estate market, however the long term cycle has many forces behind it and will likely remain strong in South Florida.